Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 34.495199 37.332790 40.455367 44.178586 48.540889 53.546950 59.812454
2025-08-31 31.561814 35.372356 39.842787 45.583409 52.932621 62.294334 75.621067
2025-09-07 28.818447 32.944690 37.968911 44.719094 53.869437 66.398096 86.056864
2025-09-14 26.775315 31.059955 36.424342 43.887915 54.481606 69.900603 96.335619
2025-09-21 24.730308 28.959263 34.350811 42.028960 53.276867 70.378654 101.736227
2025-09-28 23.546897 27.853602 33.453106 41.635052 54.057231 73.937176 113.562176
2025-10-05 23.525302 28.241638 34.554062 44.143894 59.542907 86.359655 148.484010
2025-10-12 22.594832 27.335951 33.780094 43.779716 60.351103 90.688635 168.181741
2025-10-19 22.031343 26.887910 33.605329 44.287090 62.662367 98.443170 202.675407
2025-10-26 21.768336 26.831296 33.975693 45.665802 66.701116 110.997529 266.721584
2025-11-02 21.213447 26.325484 33.639609 45.850878 68.552736 119.302416 329.480395
2025-11-09 20.203060 25.120211 32.183435 44.044724 66.308438 116.986605 338.483802
2025-11-16 19.190073 23.982957 30.940334 42.807134 65.666904 120.379278 401.616216
2025-11-23 18.844649 23.800059 31.151581 44.109514 70.522052 141.519907 729.395529
2025-11-30 18.075646 22.941565 30.234924 43.295314 70.674393 148.946562 1067.176648
2025-12-07 17.384388 22.160719 29.385628 42.509078 70.738893 156.363611 1740.814320
2025-12-14 16.551629 21.129242 28.074349 40.748985 68.249217 153.377135 2083.576497
2025-12-21 16.059787 20.590862 27.528845 40.375627 69.011062 163.682584 6175.861520
2025-12-28 16.125246 20.899230 28.379060 42.751229 77.152542 214.856495 NaN
2026-01-04 15.692595 20.415980 27.877150 42.406734 78.127293 232.938616 NaN
2026-01-11 15.430535 20.186042 27.787801 42.886653 81.539258 272.324536 NaN
2026-01-18 15.315906 20.180789 28.079882 44.189631 87.808902 351.942304 NaN
2026-01-25 15.031536 19.891235 27.856249 44.364416 90.671761 415.625171 NaN